Ecuador's violence-hit coastal region focus of presidential candidates

By Alexandra Valencia and Yury Garcia

The two candidates battling it out to win Ecuador's presidency in this Sunday's run-off have focused their energies on the populous coastal provinces, where voters are pleading for action to tackle spiraling drug-related violence.

Incumbent President Daniel Noboa has intensified security operations and economic hand-outs after he lost the seven provinces - including Guayas, home to Ecuador's largest city, Guayaquil - to leftist rival Luisa Gonzalez in February's first round.

Gonzalez has promised ambitious social programs as well as security improvements.

Noboa, a 37-year-old business heir, was elected in 2023 to serve out the remainder of his predecessor's term on promises to combat drug gangs that have roiled the once-placid South American country. He says he and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed security when they met informally last month.

In February, Noboa nationally came just 16,746 votes ahead of Gonzalez, an unexpectedly tight result as voters voiced frustration with his lack of progress on security issues.

"On the coast we're voting for Luisa (Gonzalez) because Noboa supposedly had many plans to combat crime and he hasn't achieved them," said Guayaquil student Gabriela Pogyo, who said her family was shaken down by a gang demanding $5,000.

"Now I see Gonzalez has proposals but they are not very attractive, I am scared the same thing will happen," said the 19-year-old.

The president has ratcheted up his law and order crackdown since the vote, deploying 100,000 soldiers and police nationwide, reactivating military cooperation agreements with the United States, destroying housing he says was being used for drug distribution in violent areas, and inking a deal for Blackwater founder Erik Prince to advise on security.

At the same time, he has sought to promote his social bona fides, distributing payouts to people affected by an oil spill, small businesses hit by flooding, as well as students, police and the military.

He has said he needs more time to implement his "Phoenix" security plan and that military deployments, harsher sentencing and arrests of gang leaders reduced violent deaths by 15% last year.

"We will not lose the country, we will defend it to the death, until the last second," Noboa told supporters on Sunday in the city of Balzar in Guayas. "For the incredulous who don't believe we can do things well, we need to show them action, public works and progress."

Gonzalez has said she will fight crime by adding 20,000 police officers, deploying anti-money laundering technology and sending thousands of peace-focused social workers to violent neighborhoods to help create jobs and keep kids, often recruited by gangs, in school.

"They told us the Phoenix Plan would fix everything, they lied. Today Ecuador is among the most dangerous countries in the world, we go out into the street and feel the danger," Gonzalez said in a video posted on social media. "But we know how to change it: when dignity goes up, crime goes down."

Tackling the widening reach of the drug trade and insecurity has been a key issue for Latin American politicians in recent years, from Chile to Argentina, El Salvador to Costa Rica.

Noboa's struggles may be a sign that a focus on purely hardline policies may not always be a winning strategy.

VOTE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE

Pollsters say either of the candidates - who also faced off in the 2023 election - could win.

"People won't be convinced easily, they want and expect results," said Click Research pollster Francis Romero.

Little space remains for either Gonzalez or Noboa to increase support, Romero said.

However, any major security incident ahead of the vote could boost support for Noboa if he can respond effectively, said political analyst and University of the Americas professor Cristian Carpio.

Ecuador's interior minister has warned gangs will step up attacks before election day.

Violent deaths in Ecuador in January and February nearly doubled to 1,529 compared to the same two months in 2024. Gonzalez cites that as evidence that Noboa's policies are failing, while the government has attributed the increase to violence between rival gangs.

"I voted for Noboa and I have such a sour taste in my mouth because he hasn't done anything in this year-and-a-half," said Margarita Pacheco, 34, who works as a cleaner and lives in Nueva Prosperina, one of Guayaquil's most dangerous neighborhoods. Noboa got just 23% of the area's vote in the first round.

Pacheco says she has to pay $5 a week to a local gang so they will leave her and her three small children alone.

"Now I've decided to vote for Luisa Gonzalez, I hope I won't regret it," she said. "I have faith everything will change."