Tariff turmoil could undercut Trump's buyout offers to federal workers

By Alexandra Alper and Nathan Layne

A host of U.S. federal agencies have unveiled fresh buyout offers to slash their workforce, renewing a voluntary program that preceded the first wave of mass firings led by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.

About 75,000 federal workers accepted the first offer, but some economists queried how many would take it this time, after President Donald Trump sent world markets into a downward spiral and raised fears by unveiling sweeping new tariffs last week.

The treasury department, defense department and human resources agency the Office of Personnel Management, are among those that recently unveiled a new version of the "deferred resignation program".

The offer gives workers the chance to go on leave with pay until September before formally exiting their roles.

On Monday, the Department of Homeland Security asked non-law enforcement employees to consider voluntarily resigning, retiring or taking a buyout of as much as $25,000 in a new voluntary program, an internal email showed.

DOGE, the White House, Treasury, Defense and OPM did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

With the market uncertainties induced by Trump's tariffs expected to chill private-sector hiring, however, federal workers would be less likely to take the offers, said Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland.

"It will be harder to make the transition to the private sector if we're in the depths of a recession," Morici said in an interview.

Similar views were expressed by participants in a Reddit group chat that has become a lifeline for federal workers since the Musk-led purge began.

They warned workers would be entering a potentially much more unfriendly job market as companies grapple with the fallout from Trump's announcement.

In an email on Friday, Chuck Ezell, the acting director of OPM, told staff the new offer "provides employees the option to take paid administrative leave through Sept. 30, 2025."

He described it "as a tool to avoid reductions in force," the formal term for mass layoffs.

The Department of Labor and the General Services Administration, which manages the government's real estate portfolio, have also announced similar programs.

The Labor Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while a GSA spokesman said the agency's new offer also applied to workers who had already been identified for dismissal.

The program is one of many efforts to dramatically reduce the size and costs of the federal government. The latest buyout offer takes a page from the so-called fork in the road email sent on January 28, offering a similar program to all 2 million civilian full-time federal workers.

That email was followed by DOGE-led mass firings of tens of thousands of probationary workers, although a judge has since forced the administration to rehire them, ruling that their terminations were probably illegal.

DOGE is now scything through departments in a second wave of large-scale layoffs.